DRAM industry profits to stabilize in 2015 as Korea-based makers slow capacity ramps, says DRAMeXchange
Steve Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Wednesday 10 September 2014]
Construction of Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's new fabrication plants will not be finished until 2015, with manufacturing capacity for the coming year still under planning, according to DRAMeXchange.
A significant increase in capacity at Samsung's Line 17 fab initially scheduled for the second quarter of 2015 has been delayed. Production will begin at 10,000 wafer starts a month in the second quarter of 2015 and increase gradually to 40,000 wafer starts by the end of the year, DRAMeXchange said.
The incremental capacity increases will help stabilize profit structures and allow for immediate product mix adjustments. However, since Samsung's older plants do not have room for new manufacturing equipment, total capacity may decrease. Thus, despite the extra capacity from the Line 17 fab, Samsung's total capacity in 2015 will likely remain roughly the same level as that in 2014, with yearly growth dependent on technology migration.
SK Hynix's new M14 fab will also be completed in 2015, and equipment is expected to be moved in around the middle of the year. However, no significant yearly capacity growth is expected in 2015, as total production capacity is likely to decrease as it migrates from 25nm to a 21nm process, despite the addition of a new fab. The 25nm process will remain SK Hynix's mainstream technology in 2015. Advancement to the 21nm process will begin in mid-2015 at the earliest.
Micron, with its strict cost control and profit-based strategy, does not have capacity expansion plans for 2015. Migration to the 20nm process in 2015 will take place mainly at Inotera Memories (commodity DRAM) and the Hiroshima fab (mobile DRAM). With a risk-averse operational strategy, Micron is expected to experience the weakest growth among DRAM manufacturers in 2015. As DRAM manufacturers are cautiously boosting manufacturing capacity, the industry should be able to avoid massive price fluctuations and see stable profit in 2015, DRAMeXchange commented.
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